Can someone tell me more about this? Someone told me that researchers had confirmed that AGI will be made available in approx 2 years. They also said that the researchers confirmed that they found the block that had been holding them back. Can someone confirm the validity of this? And also tell me more about this??
My opinion:
Such predictions are meaningless until there is a generally accepted definition of what AGI really means. No such definition currently exists.
Then you have to consider the motivations of the people who are making these claims.
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Behind every block there is another block, maybe a larger block!
Removing different blocks may lead to different solutions!
We may be on the wrong trip altogether, running after pareidoliac intelligence.
Or one may be sufficiently content to never bother to remove all the blocks at all. In “Epoch”, Cory Doctorow imagines an AGI running on the Institute servers, but nobody finds any use for it. But then the server infrastructure is scheduled for removal…
And then it’s like … “what do we want to actually do”?
An article of interest on that subject:
Design Lessons From AI’s Two Grand Goals: Human Emulation and Useful Applications
Researchers’ goals shape the questions they raise, collaborators they choose, methods they use, and outcomes of their work. This article offers a fresh vision of artificial intelligence (AI) research by suggesting a simplification to two goals:
- emulation to understand human abilities to build systems that perform tasks as well as or better than humans and
- application of AI methods to build widely used products and services.
Researchers and developers for each goal can fruitfully work along their desired paths, but this article is intended to limit the problems that arise when assumptions from one goal are used to drive work on the other goal. For example, autonomous humanoid robots are prominent with emulation researchers, but application developers avoid them, in favor of tool-like appliances or teleoperated devices for widely used commercial products and services. This article covers four such mismatches in goals that affect AI-guided application development:
- intelligent agent or powerful tool;
- simulated teammate or teleoperated device;
- autonomous system or supervisory control; and
- humanoid robot or mechanoid appliance.
This article clarifies these mismatches to facilitate the discovery of workable compromise designs that will accelerate human-centered AI applications research. A greater emphasis on human-centered AI could reduce AI’s existential threats and increase benefits for users and society, such as in business, education, healthcare, environmental preservation, and community safety.