hi @madhunter
in the previous comment where I mentioned a linked comment. please refer point7 and point 8 where your codes are incorrect.
You have hard coded the past series. your code would be same as naive forecast except you use 365 as you are calculating from the previous cycle in the original time series. please don’t use any len function for past series or smooth past series.
for smooth past series, use the correct split of series
as window size is 11. As you know 370 is seasonality plus the noise, window size of 11, gives 359, hence the correct split would be
(SERIES[SPLIT_TIME - 370:-359], 11)
let me know if issue still persist