C4_W1_Assignment Naive Forecast

Naive Forecast

How much values to use for
naive_forecast = series[#YOUR CODE HERE]?

Given a time series, say x = [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10] (before split), predictions for [6,7,8,9,10] are [5,6,7,8,9].
Naive forecast predicts the value at the previous timestep as the prediction for the current timestep.

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Hi Balaji,
Thanks. What is the reason to build naive forecast?
Best regards, Taras

Naive forecast sets a sort of benchmark for the models you would be using
Any predictions cant go worse than this naive forecast

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Thanks Mayank.
What course you can recommend to have better understanding?

The course you are doing is one of my recommendations
Other recommendations would be you can refer some youtube channels and also the last course of DLS specialization I think talks about sequential data,LSTM,RNN,etc
Also some kaggle courses might help(These don’t have videos tho)

naive_forecast = SERIES[SPLIT_TIME -1:-1]

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