Wk 1 Birthday problem 4 might have wrong algebra at the minimum (the logic might be flawed as well)

Thank you @AeryB for explaining the solution. It’s actually the same as my explanation in the other post: Seemingly incorrect analytical solution to Problem 4 of Birthday Lab, although in that post the roles of C1 and C2 are opposite to yours.

However, I’m sorry to say the solution is incorrect. Apologies :smile:

To verify my claim, assume each classroom consists of 2 people and there are only 5 days in a year instead of 365. You can use simple math to figure out the true answer is 365/625. However, the solution will produce 369/625. My post shares a simple python script about that.

The root cause is that Q = Q1 * Q2 * … Qn is incorrect. The events denoted by Q1, Q2, … Qn are not independent.

I feel that a correct analytical solution to this problem would have a complex form unfortunately.

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